Friday, November 29, 2019

TRIP Review

Online travel review company. Derive revenue from hotel bookings and advertisment placed on the websites.

Good balance sheet and cash generation capability with high ebitda margin. Not paying dividend yet.
Profitability is good though low net profit margin due to high investment and depreciation cost. Most of the cost is on marketing and general administration cost.

Marginal cost is low as it is website based business.

High P/E ratio but low P/Cash flow ratios indicating its cash generation capability.
Fair value is estimated to be ~$45 indicating low valuation based on current price.

Good entry point although no dividend paid for holding the stock.


Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Macy's M Review

Hammered by the market.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-stock-plunged-after-the-department-store-chain-reported-a-huge-earnings-miss-51565790916

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/08/26/macys-stock-could-triple-over-the-next-few-years.aspx


https://content-az.equisolve.net/_036737fe772bd81ce2af3dfcdcbbe121/macysinc/db/490/5730/file/Q3+2019+Balance+Sheets.pdf
https://www.macysinc.com/investors/financial-information/financial-results

Debt and coverage ratio still in tact, no signs of liquidity crunch. Company still making money with low valuation. P/E less than 8x which is attractive. Various initiatives in place for future growth.
Actively paring down debt also. Future has higher chance of being brighter than gloomier. Buy a stake at current weakness.

ALB Review

Free cash flow by 2021. Current debt/equity is ~50%. Interest coverage is ~10x which is good.
CAPEX for Lithium mines for future demand in battery. Post 2021 when the mines are up and running, the cash will flow in.
Consistent dividend payout for the last 25 years. Balance sheet is slightly leverage but not excessive and appears to be typical. Debt maturity is not very stretch out. Total debt is ~1.7B with  1B maturing within next 3 years.

As long as future electrification of global economy is on the way, demand of lithium will continue and pin company's growth which is no1 in the market. There are other business in catalyst and bromine market which they are No2. Those business has lower EBITA margin than lithum but is still good at >20% while lithium is close to 30%.

For a commodity company, the overall margin of >10% appears to be good.

2019 2Q report
https://investors.albemarle.com/static-files/85bbe6f3-47e7-4df4-9825-8396d65305a0